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Premier League: Burnley's new man Wout Weghorst 4/1 to score 10+

When Chris Wood was sold to relegation rivals Newcastle midway through the January transfer window, you began to really fear for their Premier League survival.

Not only losing their primary focal point going forward, but to their primary relegation rival.

Their main source of goals over the last couple of years, and even he was struggling to find the net this season, bagging just three times.

Thankfully for the Clarets, Maxwel Cornet has impressed since his summer move, scoring six goals and has returned from AFCON in time for Saturday’s clash with Watford.

But Burnley had been on the lookout for a striker ever since Wood’s departure to Tyneside and the Clarets may well have got themselves an upgrade for half of the money they received from Newcastle.

Wood consistently hit double figures during his spell in Lancashire, but Weghorst recorded 59 goals in 118 games for Wolfsburg and Sean Dyche will be hoping he makes a similar impact to the one that Cornet has at Turf Moor.

A real coup for Dyche, he fits the vacancy left by Wood perfectly. Built in a similar mould to the Kiwi, Weghorst is a classic target man, so don’t expect the 6ft6 Dutchman to be rounding any defenders on the half-way line and making a dart for the area.

As strong as Wood is in the air, Wegorst is probably stronger still. While 17 of Wood’s 50 (34%) Premier League goals have come with his head compared to Weghorst’s 11 from 59 (19%) in the Bundesliga, that probably says more about Burnley’s style of play, and if anything suggests Weghorst to be the more capable forward when the ball is on the ground.

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It can be a thankless task leading the line for Sean Dyche, but one Weghorst should relish. He’ll replace Wood as the constant out-ball, and there will be no question marks over his work ethic. Over the next few months Burnley will need plenty of people willing to do the dirty work and run the hard yards if they’re to get enough points for survival, and the 29-year-old won’t be found wanting in that respect.

Weghorst is 4/1 to score 10 or more Premier League goals between now and the end of the season, and 7/2 to score eight or nine.

Where he may struggle is supply. He’s unlikely to conjure up something out of nothing, and Burnley aren’t a side who’ll create bucketloads of chances for him. Their survival in the Premier League over the years has been built on the foundations of a miserly defence and ruthlessness in front of goal with what few opportunities they did make.

Their xG in 2017-18 and 2020-21 was 17th in the league. They had the fewest and third-fewest shots in the league in the two seasons in between.

This season has been more of the same; their xG tally is the lowest in the Premier League, and only Norwich have an actual goal tally that’s worse.

Weghorst is 13/8 to score five or fewer Premier League goals between now and the end of the season, and 9/4 to score six or seven.

By Steve Freeth

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