In the final part of our mini-series breaking down bet365's Premier League Goalscorer Match Bets, we look at Patrick Bamford v Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Ivan Toney v Jarrod Bowen, Michail Antonio v Jarrod Bowen and Kevin De Bruyne v Bruno Fernandes.
Both Patrick Bamford and Dominic Calvert-Lewin come into the new season with plenty to prove.
Both suffered bad luck with injuries last season, particularly Bamford who had a lengthy lay-off and got injured whenever he got back to fitness. As a result, he managed just nine league starts and two goals, and was unable to build on his tremendous debut season where he bagged 17.
Calvert-Lewin also suffered a lengthy lay-off last season on the back of 16 goals the year before. Both strikers have virtually identical goals per 90 across the last two campaigns, but the question for Bamford will be whether Jesse Marsch can get as much out of him as Marcelo Bielsa did.
After a magnificent season in the Championship, in which he scored 31 goals, guiding Brentford to play-off success, many were keen to see how Ivan Toney would fare in the top flight.
The Bees forward didn’t disappoint, scoring 12 goals, firing Brentford to a safe mid-table finish.
However, fans of his may want to express caution – five of his goals last season came from the penalty spot, and six came after the arrival of Christian Eriksen, whose service can’t be relied upon for the upcoming season. He also scored five goals in two games against Norwich and Burnley, who were both relegated to the Championship.
Jarrod Bowen will also be keen for a repeat of last season’s efforts. A series of fantastic displays saw him win West Ham’s Players’ Player of the Year, as he also fired 12 goals.
He also put up an xG tally of 11.1, only 0.9 lower than his actual goal tally, and he'll look to pick up where he left off last term.
Michail Antonio has scored exactly 10 goals in each of his last three Premier League seasons, and there’s little reason to think he won’t be around that mark once again in 22/23, having posted a similarly consistent 11.7, 11.4 and 11.1 xG in those three campaigns.
His days as a winger are long behind him, with David Moyes deploying him exclusively as a centre-forward as the Hammers look to cement themselves in the Premier League’s top half.
With Callum Wilson, he arguably has a higher ceiling, but a lower floor. He’s reached an impressive 0.50 g/90 in four Premier League campaigns, but those 90s aren’t always easy to come by. In his last two seasons, he’s started just 23 and 16 games, with injuries often keeping him out of the side, but if he can stay fit, he should surpass 10 goals for a third season.
Kevin De Bruyne comes into the 22/23 campaign on the back of a 15-goal season which saw Manchester City win their fourth title in five years.
While the two-time PFA Player of the Year has reached double figures on two occasions, his xG has never reached 10, and penalties (of which he’s scored four in the two seasons before last), are likely to be taken by Erling Haaland and Riyad Mahrez.
Fernandes meanwhile will be desperate to make amends for a below-par 21/22 season. Sharing penalty duties with Cristiano Ronaldo saw his goals/90 dip from around 0.55 (strong for a forward, let alone a midfielder) to 0.29 – a figure he averages when excluding penalties.
Despite missing both penalties he took last season, Fernandes may be top of the pecking order, with Ronaldo’s game time uncertain under Erik ten Hag – assuming he’s still at Old Trafford when the season starts.
Fernandes has managed 19 non-penalty goals from a sustainable 16 non-penalty expected goals, which may give him the edge over De Bruyne.