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Salisbury - Racing: Keith Melrose's Sovereign Stakes betting tips

There is Group-race action from Salisbury on Thursday and Keith Melrose from the Racing Post picks out the best bets on the card at the Wiltshire track.

3.05 Salisbury
Commandment @ 5/2
1pt win

4.15 Salisbury
Sinjaari @ 6/1
1pt win

4.45 Salisbury
Dal Mallart @ 6/4
1pt win

Commandment in charge

Salisbury has a stiff finish to those with form over further, or at least up similar climbs, may be at an advantage in this fillies' handicap over 6f (3.05).

On her most recent run, Commandment was beaten a head and a nose at Pontefract, where there is a similarly steep gradient in the closing furlongs. She also won at the same track in June, so it is clear that 6f races with a sting in the tail hold little fear for her.

As a result of her latest run, she is due to be 1lb higher in the weights in future so she already has an edge.

William Buick is storming to the jockeys' title this year and takes the ride, which is something of a vote of confidence in itself for a three-year-old filly who comes here much less exposed than many of her rivals.

Outsider to feature in Sovereign Stakes

The Sovereign Stakes (4.15) is one of Salisbury's feature races of the year, however, because of the dry, warm spell and resulting firm ground, it has followed the rest of this card in struggling to attract runners.

There are only four in the race, but any of them could win.

That includes the outsider of the lot on early prices, Sinjaari. He has been better than ever this year for the Charlton yard, following an eye-catching fifth in the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot with success in a top-class handicap at Sandown on Eclipse day.

Had Sinjaari come here straight from that race, he would not have been dismissed so lightly. But the fact is that he has since trailed in second to last in another top handicap at Goodwood.

There he suffered like so many do at Goodwood, simply unable to get a run up the straight behind a wall of horses. As a result, his run is best forgiven and he can be treated as still in form.

On his Sandown win, Sinjaari is not far off being the form pick in this race and therefore he absolutely does not deserve to be priced so dismissively.

A stiff mile on fast ground looks to be ideal for him, too, so there might be a shock in this four-runner affair.

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King to reign on Sovereign day

The 1m4f fillies' handicap at 4.45 has a bumper prize fund of £34,000, but has attracted only three runners.

They are a good three, though, and early favourite Sea On Time is totally unexposed, but has not answered questions on anything firmer than good and her pedigree is not hugely promising for this ground.

The same does not go for Dal Mallart, who could be described as having a fast-ground pedigree. She has won three of her five handicaps, the latest of them at Sandown three weeks ago when she but daylight into her rivals.

The second and third that day finished second and first respectably in another handicap over the same course and distance last week, so the form is solid at the very least.

Dal Mallart now steps up further in trip, but she looked ready for it at Sandown and she is extremely well equipped for this test. For all her promise, we cannot be sure in saying the same about Sea On Time.

By Keith Melrose

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